Tuesday, April 29, 2008

"The hardest thing about any political campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning." ~ Adlai E. Stevenson

I have a headache. Two nights ago, I slept in some kind of weird position and woke up with a pain in my shoulder and neck, and I've had a headache and neck pain ever since. But, that has absolutely nothing to do with my topic this morning.

Tom and I watched Rev. Jeremiah Wright's "performance" at the National Press Club Monday night on CNN. You can see an excerpt here if you choose to spend nearly 10 minutes of your time doing so.

It was one of the oddest performances by a so-called professional I have ever seen. I was particularly intrigued by the clowning behind Donna Leinwand while she asked questions of Rev. Wright. It was like the Reverend was completely out of control and having a meltdown of sorts.

The first thing that came to my mind as I watched this guy was, Is this some kind of set up?

When it comes to politics, I am a skeptic and I see a carefully orchestrated gameplay in everything. That said, I don't think Rev. Wright's performance at this moment in time in the Presidential race is an accident. I think Barack Obama and his campaign have used Rev. Wright to set the wheels in motion to create a reason to withdraw from the Presidential race. I know you are thinking I am nuts, but bear with me.

First, the reason Obama removed his name from the Michigan ballot was not because their early date violated party rules. If that were true, why did he not remove himself from the Florida ballot, too? The real reason was because no matter how much money his campaign spent there, he knew Clinton would win and she would win BIG (which is why he didn't want a re-vote either), and he didn't want to start his campaign with a big loss because it would be too difficult to restore any momentum. However, the Democratic party, even though they are not yet "counting" the votes or seating the delegates, sees this as a big and important loss for Obama. You don't have to believe me, that's okay.

Second, most of the states Obama won in the primaries were those that are historically won by Republicans in the general election. Clinton has won most of the democratic states.

Third, even before the Rev. Wright debacle, Obama was declining in the polls, even with all the money his campaign has raised. Although Obama spent nearly three times what Clinton did for the primary election, he lost soundly in Pennsylvania. He can pull in the cash, but it doesn't help all that much. Cash has to translate into votes and pundits were starting to talk about which candidate would be the most electable against McCain.

Fourth, Clinton's rise in the polls against McCain. RealClearPolitics.com cites polls showing Clinton with a thee point lead, while others show her with a six or nine point lead. Obama makes a much poorer showing, with losses to McCain by one to two points and wins by one to three points. Clinton is clearly the front-runner.

Democrats want to win this election... REAL BAD. Obama knows that. He also knows that if he can't pull off a win in the general election, he is toast for any other Presidential elections in the future. So will Obama chance losing to McCain? No. Will the Democratic party elders chance losing to McCain? Can I get a "Hell No!" So what then? Because of his decline and poor "electability" showing, the party has begun (in private, of course) to pressure Obama and he will withdraw from the race in the near future. But how does he do that and save face? He can't just quit. He can't just slink away, licking his wounds. He needs to create a "real reason" besides his own inability to consistently generate and hold supporters or "close the deal"; he needs a crisis; he needs an issue ~ an outside issue ~ that could possibly provide enough ammunition for the Republican party to use against him and would most assuredly cause Obama to lose the general election to McCain. But the "issue" can't be a permanent one, nor can it diminish his message or discredit his policy positions. It has to be an issue from which Obama could successfully distance himself over a period of time, enough to cleanse himself and reputation so he can run for President again in the future.

Enter Rev. Wright and the orchestrated set up. Wright goes before the National Press Club (where better??), acts like a complete wacko, embarrasses Obama, provides tons of ammunition for the Republicans and creates the "perfect issue" that would most assuredly compromise Obama's ability to to bring home the win for the Democratic party. Obama doesn't want to hurt the party's chances in the general election so he withdraws for the good of the party. Obama then distances himself from Wright for the next four to eight years, maybe serves as Vice President. Then goes on to run for President and wins. The Democrats lead the country for the next sixteen years. Everybody's happy and successful and prosperous.

Well, that is until the country gets sick of the Democrats running things, then again votes in a Republican majority to Congress. By that time, maybe the country will be ready for Jeb Bush for President. Then we start all over again.

Fun, huh?

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